Definition
A statistical forecasting technique that takes the raw output of a numerical weather prediction computer model and refines it using historical relationships between model predictions and actual observed weather at specific locations. The result is a tailored forecast of variables such as temperature, wind, cloud cover, precipitation probability, and visibility for a particular airport or station.
Plain English
Computer weather models produce general forecasts. Model Output Statistics adjusts those raw forecasts using past records of how the model performed at a specific location, producing a more accurate, location-specific weather prediction.
Context Anchor
Pilots may see Model Output Statistics in preflight weather planning, especially when comparing forecast guidance for a departure airport, destination, or alternate airport.
Derivation
The name describes the process directly: statistics are applied to the output of a weather model. 'Statistics' here means using historical data patterns to correct or sharpen the model's raw numbers.
Why Pilots Care
Delivers higher-accuracy local weather guidance that supports safer flight planning and go/no-go decisions.
Intuition Check
Do not read this as just “numbers from a weather model.” Model Output Statistics means the model forecast has been statistically adjusted using past real-world weather results.
Example Sentence 1
During flight planning, the pilot reviewed the Model Output Statistics forecast for the destination airport to check expected wind and visibility at arrival time.
Example Sentence 2
Model Output Statistics adjusted the raw model temperatures to better match observed conditions at the airport.