Definition
A short-range weather forecast based on the assumption that current weather conditions will continue unchanged over the forecast period. It is most reliable when the weather pattern is stable and the forecast period is short.
Plain English
A forecast that simply says the weather a few hours from now will be the same as it is right now.
Context Anchor
Seen in aviation weather discussions, especially when comparing simple forecast methods or making short-term weather judgments before a flight.
Derivation
From the Latin 'persistere,' meaning 'to continue steadfastly' or 'to remain.' The name fits: the forecast assumes current conditions persist.
Why Pilots Care
Supports quick flight planning decisions when detailed forecasts are unavailable or conditions appear stable.
Intuition Check
Do not read “persistence forecast” as a forecast about stubborn or severe weather. In aviation weather, it means a forecast based on the idea that the current weather will continue.
Example Sentence 1
With clear skies and steady winds all morning, the pilot relied on a persistence forecast for the short hop to the next airport.
Example Sentence 2
With a persistence forecast showing steady winds, the crew planned the approach without expecting gust changes.