Definition
In risk assessment, a likelihood category indicating that an event is expected to occur several times during the life of an operation, system, or activity. It sits above 'Occasional' and below 'Frequent' on the standard FAA likelihood scale used in the risk assessment matrix.
Plain English
The hazard is likely to happen more than once if the activity continues over time. It is not a rare event — you should expect it to come up repeatedly.
Context Anchor
Seen when judging the likelihood side of a risk assessment before or during a flight decision.
Derivation
From Latin probabilis, meaning 'likely' or 'credible.' In everyday speech 'probable' often means 'pretty likely.' In FAA risk language it carries a specific tier on a scale, not just a general sense of likelihood.
Why Pilots Care
Rating a hazard as 'Probable' rather than 'Occasional' or 'Remote' usually pushes the assessed risk into a higher category, which may require active mitigation before the flight or operation can safely continue.
Intuition Check
Probable does not mean guaranteed. It means likely enough that a careful pilot should plan as though it may happen.
Example Sentence 1
The instructor rated the likelihood of a student over-controlling on the first crosswind landing as Probable, and planned the lesson with that in mind.
Example Sentence 2
Because icing was probable, the pilot added extra fuel for a possible diversion.