Definition
A computer-generated projection, displayed on a controller's radar screen, of where an aircraft will be in the next several seconds based on its current ground track and speed. In Precision Runway Monitor (PRM) operations, ten-second track prediction lines are shown ahead of each aircraft so controllers can detect early any aircraft that may deviate toward an adjacent parallel approach course.
Plain English
A short line drawn ahead of the aircraft symbol on the controller's screen showing where the aircraft will be a few seconds from now if it keeps flying the same way.
Context Anchor
Seen in Precision Runway Monitor radar discussions for closely spaced parallel instrument approaches, where controllers must notice possible course deviations very quickly.
Derivation
Track means the path something follows. Prediction means a statement about what is likely to happen before it happens. Together, track prediction means a projected path shown before the aircraft actually reaches that point.
Why Pilots Care
Enables rapid detection of aircraft blunders during simultaneous instrument approaches, allowing controllers to issue breakout instructions before a conflict develops.
Grounding Statement
The radar is not just showing where the aircraft is; it is also giving the controller a short look at where the aircraft is likely to be if it keeps moving the same way.
Intuition Check
Do not read track prediction as a planned route or a guaranteed future path. It is only a short-term estimate based on the aircraft’s present movement.
Example Sentence 1
On a PRM approach, the controller watches each aircraft's ten-second track prediction to make sure it stays clear of the adjacent final approach course.
Example Sentence 2
With accurate track prediction, controllers can issue a breakout instruction well before the aircraft's path intersects with the other approach.