Plain English Meaning

How likely it is that something bad will actually happen if a particular hazard is present.

Full Definition

In aviation risk management, likelihood is the estimated probability that a hazard will result in an unwanted event such as an incident or accident. It is one of the two factors used to assess risk, the other being severity. Likelihood is typically rated on a scale (for example: probable, occasional, remote, improbable) based on how often the event is expected to occur given the conditions and exposure.

Context Anchor

Used when judging risk before or during a flight, especially when deciding whether a hazard is unlikely, possible, or likely to cause a problem.