Definition
In aviation risk management, probability is the likelihood that a given hazard will result in an unsafe event or accident. It is one of the two factors used to assess risk, the other being severity. Probability is typically expressed in qualitative terms such as frequent, probable, occasional, remote, or improbable.
Plain English
How likely it is that something bad will actually happen if a hazard is present. It answers the question: what are the chances?
Context Anchor
Seen when evaluating risk before or during a flight, such as deciding how likely weather, aircraft condition, or pilot readiness could create a problem.
Derivation
From the Latin probabilis, meaning 'likely' or 'credible.' In aviation, the word keeps that everyday sense but is paired with severity to produce a structured estimate of risk rather than a casual guess.
Why Pilots Care
Accurately judging probability lets pilots weigh risks realistically and decide whether to fly, delay, or add precautions.
Intuition Check
Do not read probability as certainty. A high probability means something is likely, not guaranteed; a low probability means something is unlikely, not impossible.
Example Sentence 1
When assessing the risk of flying with a forecast of scattered thunderstorms, the instructor rated the probability of encountering convective weather as 'probable.'
Example Sentence 2
High probability of turbulence combined with passenger comfort concerns led to a lower-altitude routing choice.